Moscow Flights Halt for Up to Nine Hours as Drone Threats Mount

Travelers flying in or out of Moscow now face frequent delays, with the city's four main airports suspending operations on most days this month. According to the investigative outlet Agentstvo, Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo airports have closed for up to nine hours at a time. These interruptions represent a sharp increase in disruption for passengers and logistics operators in the region.

The pattern follows a strategic objective set by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In early September, he announced that Ukraine intended to cut off airspace around Moscow and other Russian destinations. Zelenskyy warned that Russian airspace would become completely unsafe for commercial traffic. Ukraine formally communicated this warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization the following day. This stance mirrors the closure of Ukrainian airspace since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

The immediate cause of the shutdowns is a safety procedure used by Rosaviatsiya, Russia’s aviation authority. Known as the carpet protocol, this rule mandates the immediate closure of airspace if an aircraft violates borders, weapons are deployed, or unidentified objects appear in the sky. Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of consultancy Friendly Avia Support, explained that every drone is treated as a military threat under these rules. He noted that the situation resembles disruptions caused by Yemen’s Houthis in Saudi airspace, but with Ukraine possessing far greater military capabilities.

Military analyst Jan Matvejev stated that Ukraine can easily disrupt air traffic around Moscow using simple drones that lack warheads or long-range capabilities. He pointed out that Ukraine’s arms industry can produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones daily. Simon Shuster, writing in The Atlantic in October, described the current efforts as just getting started based on information from well-informed sources. This production capacity suggests that the frequency of incidents may continue to rise.

Experts indicate that Russian air defenses have not fully countered the drone threat. Matvejev argued that if it were possible to shoot all drones down, they would have done so by now. He suggested that Russia would have deployed more air-defense troops if it had the resources to do so effectively. This perceived gap in defense has heightened concerns among aviation safety professionals regarding the risk to civilian flights.

Both Laneckij and Matvejev warned of potential dangers to commercial aircraft. Laneckij said Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol, increasing the risk of incidents similar to the 2024 Christmas day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight. That aircraft was struck by a Russian air-defense missile fired to counter drones, killing 38 people. Matvejev noted that little has changed in the protocol since that incident, though the risk is lower for machines shot with machine guns than for those engaging missiles.

Matvejev added that drones do not need explosives to cause harm, as a collision with an airplane can be severe. He estimated that a drone flown from Ukraine to Moscow would weigh dozens of kilograms. The impact of these operations is not limited to Moscow. Ukrainian forces attacked Pskov airport in the summer of 2023, and drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. Conversely, Russia has struck Ukrainian airports, including Kyiv and Boryspil, in September.

The future of foreign airline operations in Russia depends on three key factors: military threat levels, passenger demand, and insurance costs. Laneckij explained that if insurers rate the risk as very high, premiums could rise sharply, leading to higher ticket prices. Competition in the Russian aviation market has already shrunk as many airlines have gone out of business. This has increased demand for seats on the remaining foreign carriers. Laneckij stated that whether these airlines stay will depend on the price they must pay for the danger they face.