Polls indicate 12 to 15 Knesset seats will determine Israel's next government

Neither the governing coalition nor the opposition is projected to secure the 61 seats required to form a government in Israel's 120-seat Knesset.

Current polling data suggests Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right bloc will lose its majority, while the Jewish Israeli opposition also falls short of the necessary threshold. The gap between the two major blocs will be filled by Palestinian citizens of Israel, who are forecast to capture between 12 and 15 seats. These seats are split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, an alliance of three smaller parties including Ta'al.

Ahmad Tibi, who has served in the Knesset for more than two decades and heads Ta'al, stated that high turnout among the Arab community is a primary tool for toppling the current administration. He noted that the community is determined to do everything possible to bring the government down. However, most of the Jewish Israeli opposition has previously ruled out forming a coalition with Arab politicians. Right-wing campaign materials have intensified this division, using slogans such as "Bibi or Tibi" and "It's [either] the right or Palestine" to frame the choice as a binary conflict.

Past precedents challenge the idea that Arab politicians are excluded from governance. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a historic coalition with Naftali Bennett, who now sits in the opposition. Netanyahu also initiated coalition talks with Abbas at one point. Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group described the upcoming vote as largely about mitigation, noting that a returning far-right coalition would hold a renewed mandate to accelerate policies of annexation and ethnic cleansing. He observed that voters can distinguish between a right-wing and a far-right government, making the decision a choice between two levels of risk.

Voter motivation is driven by fear of another four years under far-right ministers, particularly following the destruction in Gaza and rising discrimination within Israel. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, identified fear as the biggest motivation for voters. This sentiment is compounded by recent legal battles, including the Supreme Court's ruling that effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article regarding the 7 October attacks. The court applied different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens in that case, a decision widely criticized for its inconsistency. Conversely, a motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language was not upheld.

Local events in Kfar Qasim underscore the community's historical context. The town is set to mark the 1956 massacre two days before the election, commemorating the 49 men, women, and children killed by border police. Residents gathered recently to hear candidates and discuss the stakes. Mohammed, a prospective voter who manages staff at a hi-tech company, expects the opposition to change its stance once results arrive, describing the final math as simple. He is urging friends of all backgrounds to vote to ensure their voices are counted in the final tally.

The election takes place next week. The outcome will hinge on whether the 12 to 15 seats held by Palestinian parties tip the balance toward Netanyahu's coalition or the opposition bloc. Both sides are currently short of the 61 seats needed to govern independently. The final government composition will depend on which bloc can secure enough support from these seats to reach a majority.