Israel Vote Leaves No Clear Winner

Voters in Israel cast ballots on Tuesday, and early counts indicate no political camp can secure the 61 seats required to form a government. The result leaves the identity of the next prime minister undecided while counting continues.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud is projected to win up to 28 seats. His alliance of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties remains below the governing threshold. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party appears set for second place with approximately 22 seats. The broader change bloc is projected at roughly 47 seats, also short of a majority.

Arab parties are on track to win at least 17 seats combined. Both major blocs stated during the campaign that they would exclude these parties from a governing coalition. President Isaac Herzog will begin formal consultations with party leaders next week to determine a candidate for prime minister.

Analysts outline three main scenarios. The first involves a government backed by the change bloc and Arab parties. Mansour Abbas, leader of Ra'am, has offered to cooperate. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, noted the math works but said the public is deeply unprepared for such a move after the October 2023 attacks. A variation would be a minority government of 65 seats with Arab parties voting from outside.

The second scenario is a unity government. Plesner suggested Netanyahu might keep his core bloc and lure in one change bloc party. Change bloc parties would likely demand the removal of a far-right or ultra-Orthodox party that has resisted military draft bills. Many change bloc voters, who supported replacing Netanyahu, may feel betrayed by such a centrist-leaning outcome.

The third scenario is another election. Eisenkot called a repeat vote a mistake given the high turnout. Election officials reported a 77.7% participation rate, the highest since 1999. Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said entrenched camps make new elections plausible. Plesner said settling the government may take weeks or months.