Lebanese Shi'ites Back State Control of Hezbollah Arms by 2-to-1 Margin

Hezbollah faces mounting pressure from its core constituency, with a new survey revealing that two-thirds of Lebanese Shi'ites want the state to assume control of the group's weapons. The data, collected in September by Statistics Lebanon among 800 Shi'ite respondents, shows 66.4% support handing over the arsenal. Only 29.6% prefer the militia retains its arms, challenging the organization's long-standing argument that its weapons are essential for defense against Israel.

The survey, reported by KAN and Kataeb.org in mid-October, also measured public confidence in national security institutions. Approximately 78.5% of respondents expressed trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces. A majority of 51.1% identified the army as the best institution to guarantee long-term security. In contrast, just 16.5% selected Hezbollah for that role. The results suggest a shift in loyalty away from the militia toward the state military.

Respondents also evaluated the militia's performance in the war with Israel. Some 67.4% said Hezbollah failed to meet its goals or achieved only some of them. Additionally, 42.1% voiced disappointment, anger, or concern regarding the group's leadership and the conflict's consequences. Despite this criticism, 59.5% still reported some level of trust in the organization, including 37.1% who expressed a great deal of trust.

The findings contrast sharply with earlier data. In a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International, cited by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni, 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. Only 7.9% supported giving up its weapons at that time. The June 2026 analysis from Israel's Institute for National Security Studies noted that over 90% of respondents then opposed ties with Israel.

Local sentiment in southern Lebanon shows signs of wariness regarding the militia's infrastructure. In the city of Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a financial institution linked to Hezbollah, in their building. Residents feared the site could become a target for Israeli strikes, a risk that has materialized in the past.

Hezbollah has announced financial aid to families affected by the war. The group is providing up to $14,000 to eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed. Families in other areas are eligible for up to $12,000. The group has suffered major leadership losses, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024, and a new war began in March 2026, causing heavy destruction in southern villages.

Researchers argue that Hezbollah's influence persists through social and economic networks, political power, and historical marginalization of the Shi'ite community. They note that intimidation has discouraged dissent. Weakening the group would require a stronger Lebanese army and financial support from Western and Gulf states to allow the state to replace the services the militia provides.