7,000 Dead: Analysts Forecast Third U.S.-Iran War Phase After Nov. 3 Midterms

U.S. and Israeli military leaders may resume combat with Iran immediately after the November 3 midterm elections, according to analysts who warn the next phase of the war will be more destructive than the first two. Danny Citrinowicz, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, stated that a renewed war seems almost inevitable once the U.S. election results are finalized.

Citrinowicz, who served as an Israeli intelligence official for over 20 years, believes the conflict will expand beyond military targets. He expects the third round of fighting to strike Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. He also predicted Iran might launch limited attacks from its land army against Kuwait and Bahrain to damage the U.S. economy.

The two nations have fought two distinct wars against Iran in the past 18 months. The first began in June 2025 with attacks on nuclear sites and ended after 12 days. Fighting resumed in February following a major U.S. military buildup, beginning with Israeli strikes on Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since then, both sides have largely avoided direct strikes on each other's bases, but the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran targets commercial shipping.

President Donald Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the midterms, claiming the country was making up fake hits and mines. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that vessel attacks aim to pressure Washington. Iran seeks sanctions relief, reparations, release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have failed to restart talks.

The human cost of the conflict remains high. Western non-governmental organizations report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran, while Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have been killed. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is currently drafting a new battle plan, though it is unclear if Trump will approve it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated he intends to finish the job and bring down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in a close election in the coming days. Citrinowicz suggested a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by allowing him to form an emergency unity government. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that retaliation from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah could target soft economic sites such as airports.

Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that diplomacy has narrowed due to Trump's maximalist goals. He stated that Iran would only compromise under existential economic pressure and a clear diplomatic exit, noting that asking them to change their identity will not succeed.