Votel: Oil Shortage Shows Sanctions Are Working, But War Lacks End Goal

Americans at the pump may see relief soon if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, a goal retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel identifies as the primary driver for current military operations. Votel, who led U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019, told NPR that reopening this waterway would allow oil and commerce to flow freely. He stated that this movement would help bring down gas and diesel prices domestically.

The financial pressure on Tehran is already producing visible results. Votel cited reporting that Iran's ghost fleet has run out of oil. He noted that the blockade and additional sanctions are adding to this pressure. While he acknowledged that this approach takes time, he described the movement in that direction as definite.

Votel served as the head of U.S. operations across the Middle East during the Trump administration. He now chairs the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. Speaking with NPR reporter Leila Fadel, he assessed the likely outcomes of a post-election bombing campaign. He argued that strikes can buy time and punish Tehran, but they have not yet changed the country's calculus regarding the war's trajectory.

The general warned that many likely targets have been hit before. He observed that Iran has demonstrated the ability to rebuild these capabilities. This resilience means that fresh attacks alone are unlikely to end the conflict. Votel emphasized that military force is only one piece of national power.

He argued that Washington must define a clear end state before declaring victory. In his view, this end state centers on two specific issues: the enrichment problem and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Once that goal is set, military, economic, diplomatic, and information pressure should all be aimed at achieving it.

Votel identified the U.S. aim as reopening Hormuz to reduce domestic fuel costs and addressing Iran's nuclear program. He also noted that Iran uses proxies, including the Houthis, to create regional instability. However, he described the waterway and enrichment as the principal worries for the United States.

Regarding the military's capacity to sustain operations, Votel said American offensive power in the region is substantial. He stated that the ability to strike is not in question. The potential constraint lies in missile defense. He noted that defensive interceptors protecting U.S. forces and critical infrastructure face heavy pressure, making defense the area facing a bit of a constraint.