Misiorowski Leads 2027 Pitcher Market After Early-Round Value Slides

Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers emerged as the top option for 2027 fantasy baseball drafts after a season where the most expensive starting pitchers failed to deliver expected value. The 2026 campaign marked a clear shift in the pitching market, with mid-tier arms generating returns that rivaled or exceeded those of first-round selections. This disparity has reshaped the hierarchy for the upcoming season, placing proven mid-range pitchers at the forefront of draft strategy.

The financial gap between tiers was stark. From 2021 through 2025, the top 24 starters by average draft position generated at least $259.1 in combined value, according to FanGraphs Player Rater data. In 2026, that group produced just $227. Conversely, pitchers ranked 25th through 36th returned $155.6, a figure close to the five-year high of $172.1 recorded in 2024. This mid-tier group finished ahead of the second tier in every season from 2022 to 2026, validating the concept of the starting pitcher dead zone.

The breakdown of value shows the extent of the shift. The top 12 starters earned $158.94 in 2026, while the 13th through 24th starters earned only $67.83. The 25th through 36th group earned $155.60, nearly matching the output of the top tier. Several pitchers drove this mid-tier surge, including Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler, Chase Burns, Sonny Gray, and Zack Wheeler. However, the group also contained notable disappointments such as Spencer Strider, Emmett Sheehan, and Nick Lodolo, along with pitchers who lacked sufficient innings.

Misiorowski posted a 1.80 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and 252 strikeouts in 174.1 innings. His WHIP and 37.9% strikeout rate were the second best in Major League Baseball history, excluding the 2020 season. The review identifies him as the best pitcher in baseball, with no case for selecting anyone ahead of him in 2027. Cam Schlittler of the Yankees followed with a 1.95 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and 239 strikeouts. He is the likely recipient of the American League Cy Young award and is projected to draft behind only Misiorowski and Tarik Skubal.

The biggest disappointment was Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox, whose season collapsed after six starts. Despite the slump, analysts maintain that his early-round ranking remains defensible due to his upside. Paul Skenes of the Pirates also saw his value questioned; while his 3.82 ERA and 200 strikeouts were respectable, his ERA rose to 4.56 in the final four and a half months, and his strikeout rate dropped to 22% in August and September.

Looking ahead, Drew Rasmussen of the Rays and Jesús Luzardo of the Phillies are positioned as major risers for 2027. Rasmussen managed a career-high workload, while Luzardo's 2025 projections aligned with his 2026 performance. Zack Wheeler also moves up the board after returning from thoracic outlet surgery and finishing the season with a 1.67 ERA over his last six starts. In contrast, Skenes, Crochet, Blake Snell, Kyle Bradish, and George Kirby lead the list of decliners.

The 2027 pool features several young pitchers who will draw attention but are unlikely to command high prices. Kade Anderson had a limited impact in his debut, while uncertain roles for Didier Fuentes and Grant Taylor should keep their values modest. Andrew Painter, Jackson Jobe, Noah Schultz, and Hagen Smith are expected to go around the 200th pick. Jared Jones and Walbert Ureña are cited as strong options, offering young talent with more established track records than last year's class.