Model rates Chiefs win probability at 47% for Denver game

The Kansas City Chiefs face a difficult road test in Denver this Sunday.

A projection model known for its high-volume simulations has assigned the Chiefs a 47% chance of winning their matchup against the Denver Broncos. This low probability makes the 5-1 Chiefs an unattractive choice for participants in NFL survivor pools. The model has a record of 58 wins and 51 losses on its top-rated picks since 2024. It has generated returns of more than $5,000 for bettors who followed its recommendations.

The Chiefs enter the game at Empower Field at Mile High as 1.5-point favorites. They are also -125 money-line favorites against the 5-2 Broncos. The game is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. This follows a poor performance for Kansas City on the previous Sunday. The Chiefs lost 20-3 to the Seattle Seahawks on 'Sunday Night Football.' That result was the team's worst showing of the season.

Patrick Mahomes leads the Kansas City offense. He has completed 64.9% of his passes in six starts. He has thrown for 1,474 yards and nine touchdowns. He also has four interceptions. Kenneth Walker III leads the rushing attack. He has carried the ball 120 times for 701 yards and six touchdowns. Walker was limited to 36 yards on 14 carries in the loss to Seattle.

The Denver Broncos are the defending AFC West champions. They are currently on a three-game winning streak. Bo Nix leads the Denver offense. He has completed 59.2% of his passes for 1,271 yards and seven touchdowns. He has three interceptions. The model projects Denver as the winner in 56% of its simulations.

The model identifies the Chiefs as a risky pick because of their recent play and the location of the game. It suggests that other favorites on the Week 8 slate offer better value. The week includes 14 games due to byes. Most matchups feature home favorites, but the slate contains potential upsets. The Bengals are the largest favorites of the day. They are 10.5-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have been competitive recently, with three one-score losses and one one-score win in their last five games.

Other notable matchups include the Cardinals versus the Cowboys, who are 6.5-point favorites. The Falcons face the Buccaneers, who are two-point favorites. The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites over the Bills. The Browns are 3.5-point favorites over the Steelers. The Colts are 7.5-point favorites over the Jaguars. The Vikings are 3.5-point favorites over the Lions. The Chargers are 6.5-point favorites over the Rams.

Survivor pool players have been affected by recent upsets. The 49ers, Jets, Panthers, and Texans were eliminated in the previous week. The Texans entered that game as 10.5-point favorites over the Giants. Some players can re-enter through revival pools. The model states that it has identified a team that wins outright in well over 70% of its simulations. This team is a strong candidate for Week 8 picks, according to the analysis.