NASA Estimates 22 Starship Flights Needed for Lunar Landing

During its quarterly meeting held on Thursday, the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel provided new clarity on a long-standing mystery regarding the Artemis program. Panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, discussed the risks associated with returning humans to the Moon. In doing so, he referenced a specific estimate that has previously been guarded closely by agency officials. The figure in question is 22, representing the number of Starship launches required to support a single lunar landing mission.

This number refers to the total flights needed to fuel a Starship-based lunar lander while it is in low-Earth orbit. The goal is to ensure the vehicle has enough propellant to travel to the Moon, land on the surface, and return to lunar orbit. For years, NASA has treated this metric with unusual secrecy, akin to protecting sensitive nuclear codes. The agency has often declined to provide a precise count, citing the need for continued development and assessment.

In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, who served as the director of NASA’s Human Landing System, told reporters that the agency had a general idea but was reluctant to specify the exact figure. She later described the requirement as falling within the range of high single digits to low double digits. This earlier estimate suggested that roughly a dozen launches might be necessary. That scenario would involve one depot Starship and approximately eleven tanker Starships delivering liquid oxygen and methane.

Some other officials have previously suggested the number could be in the high teens. The underlying hope for the program was that SpaceX would dramatically increase the lift capacity of the Starship rocket. Such an improvement would reduce the number of tanker flights needed to complete the fueling process. However, growing concerns among some NASA officials suggest that these capacity improvements may not arrive soon enough to allow Starship to play a meaningful role in Artemis missions this decade.

The shift to a higher estimate of 22 launches presents significant logistical and financial challenges. It implies a sustained launch cadence that requires extensive infrastructure and operational reliability. The figure highlights the complexity of assembling large spacecraft in orbit, a process that relies heavily on the successful and repeated execution of launch campaigns.

Precourt’s remarks at the advisory panel meeting underscored the ongoing risks associated with the program. The panel is tasked with assessing safety concerns, and the number of launches is a critical factor in that assessment. A higher launch count increases the cumulative risk of failure over the duration of the mission preparation.

The Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon for the first time since the 1970s. Success depends on the successful integration of various systems, including the Starship lander. The recent estimate provides a concrete data point that was previously withheld, allowing for more detailed public and professional analysis of the mission’s feasibility.

As the program moves forward, the focus remains on whether the launch rate can be sustained and whether the vehicle performance will improve as anticipated. The 22-launch figure stands as the latest official indication of the scale required to achieve the lunar landing goal.