Lunar Logistics: Musk Counters Panel With Lower Fueling Count

Elon Musk responded to a recent safety review by stating that six to eight Starship launches will be sufficient to refuel the lunar lander for the 2028 Artemis IV mission. The CEO’s assessment directly challenges the figure presented by the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, which estimated the requirement at approximately 22 flights.

The disagreement surfaced during the panel’s quarterly public meeting on Thursday. Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut and panel member, identified the fueling process as a primary risk factor for the mission. Precourt cited the current estimate of 22 flights while urging continued monitoring of the necessary refueling operations. Eric Berger of Ars Technica shared Precourt’s comments on X, prompting Musk’s reply that the panel’s number was "way too high."

The technical difficulty arises because Starship consumes nearly all its propellant reaching Earth orbit. It cannot reach the Moon without additional fuel. SpaceX’s proposed solution involves an orbital depot. A storage tank version of Starship is launched first, followed by individual tanker flights that dock and transfer propellant. Once the depot is full, the crewed lunar lander docks to refuel before departing for the Moon. Each tanker mission represents a full rocket launch, adding cost, time, and operational risk.

Eric Berger calculated that even at a pace of two Starship launches per week by the end of 2027, filling the depot at the panel’s 22-flight estimate would require three months. The final number depends on the vehicle’s lift capacity and propellant retention. Starship carries cryogenic fuel that slowly boils off in orbit, with additional losses during transfer. NASA’s estimate appears based on current lift capabilities, whereas Musk’s lower range assumes a more capable vehicle.

Musk has previously contested similar projections. In 2021, he described a government document’s suggestion of 16 launches as "extremely unlikely" and predicted a maximum of eight tankers. The resolution of the current dispute relies on hardware SpaceX has not yet fully tested. The company plans to execute refueling with its upgraded V3 Starship. Precourt noted that Artemis IV involves many firsts, while also praising NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman’s team for clearing obstacles for both SpaceX and Blue Origin, whose Blue Moon lander does not require orbital refueling for its initial mission.