53% of Americans strongly disapprove of Trump in new midterm poll

53% of registered and likely voters strongly disapprove of President Trump’s job performance, a figure that ties the highest reading in the history of the Marist poll. The finding appears in a new survey conducted by NPR, PBS News, and Marist, which indicates that while Democrats hold a structural advantage in the upcoming midterm elections, the scope of their potential gains may be more limited than previous trends suggest.

The poll interviewed 1,289 registered voters from October 19 to 20, 2026. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and 3.8 points for likely voters. This marked the first time in this election cycle that Marist applied a likely voter screen to its data. Among that specific subgroup, 40% approved of the president’s job performance while 59% disapproved, a net approval rating of minus 19 points.

Democrats maintain a lead on the generic congressional ballot, a standard metric for predicting House control. Among likely voters, 8 points more favored the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate. In previous midterms where Democrats held similar or larger leads, such as 2018 and 2006, the party gained at least 30 seats. However, recent redistricting changes have shifted the map in favor of Republicans, potentially dampening the impact of this polling advantage.

Voter enthusiasm presents a mixed picture for the party seeking control of Congress. Democratic likely voters are 10 points more likely than their Republican counterparts to say they are very enthusiastic about voting, with 71% expressing high enthusiasm compared to 61% of Republicans. However, specific demographic groups that typically drive turnout for Democrats show lower engagement levels. Only 42% of likely voters under 45 are very enthusiastic, and 53% of non-white voters share that sentiment. By comparison, 68% of MAGA voters and 66% of white women without college degrees reported high enthusiasm.

The cost of living remains the primary concern for voters across the political spectrum. One third of respondents reported experiencing financial hardship in the past year, while 4 in 10 said their personal finances have worsened. Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent from Arizona, cited high food and gas prices as a major strain, stating that prices are too expensive for the American people in general. Chris Agan, a 43-year-old Democrat in Texas, described the election as a referendum against the party in power, noting a slow decline in the state’s standard of living.

Immigration and government efficiency continue to divide the electorate. 61% of respondents said immigrants should have a legal path to stay if they meet certain requirements, although two-thirds of Republicans said they should be required to leave. On the size and efficiency of government, 57% of voters said it is almost always wasteful and inefficient, a view held by majorities of Republicans and independents. In contrast, nearly 6 in 10 Democrats said government often does a better job than people give it credit for.

Confidence in the integrity of the election remains high, with three-quarters of likely voters trusting their state and local governments to run a fair and accurate vote. However, a gap persists between parties on the acceptance of results. 70% of Republicans said their preferred candidate should accept the outcome, but a quarter indicated their candidate would probably or definitely challenge the results. This group was twice as likely to express willingness to challenge the outcome compared to MAGA supporters, who showed the lowest confidence in the process.

The next major step in the election cycle involves the final push for voter registration and early voting in key states. As the November 3 deadline approaches, candidates in closely watched Senate races, including those in Texas and North Carolina, are focusing on turnout among undecided independents. The poll suggests that while Democrats have the momentum on the ballot, they face a challenge in converting disapproval of the president into high turnout among younger and non-white voters.