Bolsonaro leads Lula by 1.3 points in final Brazil poll

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro held their final campaign events on Saturday, ending a tight race that will conclude with a run-off vote on Sunday. The two candidates addressed large crowds in separate cities to close out a month-long contest for the Brazilian presidency.

Lula, 80, spoke to hundreds of supporters from a campaign truck at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. Wearing a red hat, the incumbent left-wing leader waved a national flag while addressing his base. He drew a contrast between himself and his rival regarding foreign alliances, stating, "The people must choose either someone who kisses the national flag or someone who kisses the American flag."

Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, rallied supporters in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais. His crowd included hundreds of motorcyclists wearing yellow national football shirts. Bolsonaro secured 47 percent of the vote in the first round, edging out Lula's 45 percent. Recent data indicates the race remains nearly even. A CNT/MDA poll released Saturday placed Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent and Lula at 45 percent. A week prior, the same survey showed Bolsonaro leading 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

The campaign has centered on economic policy, crime, and the nation's political direction. Bolsonaro has pledged to cut government spending and add hundreds of thousands of prison beds. His father, who served as president from 2019 to 2022, is currently serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula. Lula is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term in office.

Supporters of both sides expressed their views to AFP. Ebert Dorigo, a Bolsonaro supporter, argued that Lula's Workers' Party has encouraged dependence on government welfare. He stated, "The values we uphold are nation and family," and claimed that Brazil is divided because some people believe improvement comes only through hard work. Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, described the choice as difficult, saying, "If there were any other candidate, that would be a better option. But we're stuck choosing between the worst, the horrible, and the lesser evil."

The candidates held a calmer final debate on Friday, though they continued to trade accusations over economic difficulties. The vote will determine whether Brazil retains its current leader or joins a regional shift toward the right.