Lula Rally Draws Tens of Thousands to Copacabana Ahead of Runoff

Tens of thousands of supporters gathered on Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday for the final day of campaigning before Sunday's presidential runoff. The crowd, dressed predominantly in red, filled the 2.5-mile stretch of sand in a procession that organizers described as festive. The gathering aims to inject momentum into the campaign of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who faces far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. Sunday's vote will be decided by approximately 159 million eligible Brazilians.

The contest is statistically rare. In the first round on October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47% of the vote while Lula received 45%. Since the return of democracy to Brazil in the 1980s, no candidate who trailed in the first round has advanced to win the second. A victory for Lula would break that historical pattern. Most analysts currently view Flávio Bolsonaro as the slight favorite, though recent polling shows the race tightening.

Lula has gained ground in the polls following several scandals involving his opponent. Last week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the peak of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. The report alleges the event involved discussions on a deal with his father's government. These reports have contributed to a shift in public opinion in the days leading up to the vote.

The election carries weight beyond standard policy differences. Jair Bolsonaro, the father of the current candidate, is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after the 2022 election. Some voters fear his release or return to government if his son wins. Press reports indicate that several co-conspirators, currently jailed or in exile, may receive senior military and police appointments under a Bolsonaro administration. In the crowd, retired teacher Isabella Gaze, 64, stated that this is not a normal election.

Support for both candidates is mobilizing across the country. In Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters gathered in Praça da Liberdade wearing yellow jerseys and waving Brazilian and US flags. Minas Gerais holds the second-largest electorate in Brazil and serves as a key bellwether, as no candidate has won the presidency without carrying the state. Flávio Bolsonaro led Lula by just under 5% in that state during the first round. In Rio, truck driver Josias Silva, 61, carried a sign predicting Lula would win more than 60% of the vote, a projection that exceeds current polling estimates.