Three MKs and a Budget Deal May Break Israel's Election Deadlock

Political assessments circulating in Israel suggest that three seats and one former prime minister will determine the structure of the next government. With less than a day remaining before voting begins, analysts are identifying Agudat Yisrael and Naftali Bennett as the key variables in a fragmented political landscape.

The central scenario involves Yitzhak Goldknopf’s faction supporting an opposition-led cabinet. In exchange for this backing, Agudat Yisrael would likely demand specific budgetary agreements. This arrangement is not entirely new. Maariv reported in August that the faction explored cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. Those talks emerged from internal friction within United Torah Judaism, where Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the current coalition’s behavior.

However, the deal faces structural hurdles. Even if Goldknopf’s party supports the opposition, the government may still require votes from Arab parties to pass legislation. Goldknopf also risks alienating his voter base, which largely identifies with the Right. Assessments indicate that a move toward the change bloc could push some supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit.

If neither bloc secures the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority, the focus shifts to Naftali Bennett. Political circles suggest Bennett could join a government led by Benjamin Netanyahu. This is considered a remote scenario, but some believe Bennett is the only change bloc leader with the right-wing background to make such a shift. His current party composition would complicate the move.

Avigdor Liberman is another potential wildcard, given his history of serving as defense minister under Netanyahu. Yet, current assessments argue he is far from making such a move due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister.

Rabbi Dov Lando recently sent a letter to Likud expressing reservations about the bloc’s commitments. This added uncertainty to the relationship between haredi parties and Netanyahu’s camp. For now, these remain scenarios rather than signed agreements. The final shape of the government will depend on which leaders are willing to shift their political bases.

The coming days will test these theoretical paths. The outcome will hinge on whether Goldknopf can bridge the gap between his budget demands and his voter base, or if Bennett finds a path back into a Netanyahu-led coalition.