Ater: Record Israeli Exodus Reaches 99,000 Before Vote

Israelis have departed the country at the highest rate in recorded history, a trend that researchers say may intensify following next week's national election. The exodus reflects a combination of war, economic instability, and political uncertainty that has persisted since early 2023.

Itai Ater, a professor at the Coller School of Management at Tel Aviv University, published a study in February analyzing Central Bureau of Statistics data. The research found that 99,000 Israelis left between January 2023 and December 2024. The count includes individuals who remained abroad for at least three consecutive months and spent more than 270 days outside the country during their first year of departure.

The departure figures were nearly evenly split between the two years. Approximately 50,000 citizens left in 2023, while 49,000 departed in 2024. Ater noted that preliminary data indicates this pattern continued into 2025. The 2023 surge followed the Hamas attack on southern Israel, which killed roughly 1,200 people and resulted in 250 hostages being taken. Although a ceasefire took effect in October 2025, Israel still controls about 60 percent of the Gaza Strip and maintains regular military activity there.

The upcoming vote adds to the political uncertainty. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving leader, is seeking power again. Polls suggest his far-right bloc will not reach the 61 Knesset seats required to govern. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party is expected to win the most seats but also lacks a majority. Coalition building will be necessary, a process in which Netanyahu has historically been skilled.

Ater warned that emigration numbers will rise dramatically if the political situation does not change. Avigail Ben-Porat, a 50-year-old single mother in Kiryat Shmona, said she dreams of leaving but lacks the financial means. She lives near the Lebanese border and regularly hears rocket fire. Many of her friends have relocated to Portugal, Canada, Thailand, and India.

The composition of the departing population raises concerns for the domestic economy. The study identified a sharp increase in the departure of doctors, Ph.D. holders, and engineers in 2023 and 2024. Net departures included 2,360 engineers and 509 doctors. Ater stated that Israel's economy relies on this human capital, particularly in the tech industry, academia, and health care.

Business leaders are also assessing their presence in the country. Liam Schwartz, head of corporate immigration at the Tel Aviv law firm Goldfarb, Gross, Seligman, said some companies face pressure from non-Israeli shareholders. These investors are concerned about the viability of operating from Israel and are more willing to shift workforce segments to North America or Europe. Schwartz traced the discontent to January 2023, when the government proposed judicial reforms that would have reduced the powers of the Supreme Court.

Schwartz called the October vote a potential watershed for emigration trends. He noted that companies feel the Israeli government is no longer meeting its part of the social contract. Ater described the situation as a strategic risk to Israel's status as a democracy and a liberal country, noting that it is a concern for the Middle East and the wider world.